Average new vehicle retail price is down $1,166 year-over-year
In 2024, global light vehicle (LV) sales reached a peak selling rate of approximately 91 million units annually, marking the strongest performance within the year. Although there was a slight year-over-year dip in sales volumes, the overall market has grown by nearly 2% since the beginning of the year.
Regional Insights:
- United States: Sales decreased by 1.5% year-over-year, totaling around 1.29 million units, though the annual selling rate improved to 16 million units.
- China: Maintained a robust selling pace with a July rate of 27.7 million units annually, reflecting a 2% increase from June. However, sales were down by 9% compared to the same month last year.
- Western Europe: Experienced stagnant growth, maintaining the same volume as the previous year.
- Japan: Witnessed a significant rebound with an 11% increase in sales month-over-month.
Despite positive monthly performances, the global sales forecast for 2024 was adjusted downward by 200,000 units to 88.7 million, which still represents a 2.2% increase from 2023. The market adjustment is anticipated to be countered somewhat by expected rate cuts and price reductions, fostering a favorable environment for consumers.
U.S. Specific Sales Forecast for July 2024:
- Total new vehicle sales, including both retail and fleet transactions, are projected to hit 1,340,500, marking a 2.8% increase year-over-year.
- Factors influencing the July sales include smaller-than-usual discounts from dealers and a backdrop of reduced leasing three years prior, which has resulted in fewer lease returns and consequently, fewer opportunities for new lease sales.
Challenges and Adjustments:
- The industry faces challenges such as the recent CDK Global cyberattack impacting sales figures and the transition to 2025 model-year vehicles disrupting vehicle availability.
Market Predictions for Labor Day Sales:
- The Labor Day weekend, falling within the August reporting period this year, is expected to boost sales figures significantly due to traditionally high discounting activities associated with this holiday.
Used Vehicle Market Trends:
- Wholesale used-vehicle prices saw an uptick in July, following a slowing in depreciation rates in June, suggesting a strong sales conversion throughout the month.
These insights reflect the dynamic nature of the vehicle sales market in 2024, highlighting both challenges and opportunities within the industry.